MY ELECTION EXPECTATION

Fact or Fantasy?

We have been warned that the final results of the election this year might not be known for weeks or even months. If the results are as close as the polls indicate, there are certain to be multiple recounts, audits, investigations, and court cases before an official outcome is declared. Or, if my expectations hold true, we might wake up Wednesday morning to find that the wire services and major news networks have declared a resounding win for the Democrats up and down the ballot.

Even with an overwhelming blue wave, there will be glitches. The governors of Florida, Texas, and half a dozen other red states might impound ballots and refuse to release results pending internal audits. MAGA officials in rural counties are sure to delay vote counting and declaration of winners by any means they can conjure up. That of course would be a sure sign that they do not like the results. But all of their obfuscation will be for naught when the Harris/Walz team garners enough electoral votes to win without their states counted.

The possibility of a Trump win is simply too dreadful to consider. The MAGA team behind Project 2025 is already prepared to move quickly to dismantle the federal bureaucracy, cancel our constitution, and impose draconian controls on personal freedoms to vote, travel, worship, and manage health. They have openly promised to repeal the American Care Act and Medicaid. Within months, the United States would pull out of NATO, leading to its collapse; end support for Ukraine, effectively turning the country over to Russia; and engage U.S. forces fully behind Netanyahu’s campaign to drive out the Palestinians and take over the Gaza strip.

Based on what happened in Hungary, Venezuela, and other countries where authoritarians have taken control, we would likely see double- or triple-digit inflation, collapse of the stock market, and deep devaluation of the dollar. Unemployment and poverty levels would soar. And those are just the actions that we can state with certainty. They do not include Trump’s promise to jail his political opponents, the tragic health results of a national abortion ban, or restrictions on all religions other than neo-Christian fundamentalism. It could take decades to oust the fascists and restore order to the world economy.

A Harris win, however, would assure that the United States economy maintains its extraordinary strength and world-leading position, that it continues to support Ukraine’s battle against Russia, and continues to broker a cease-fire agreement in the middle east. The unprecedented recovery created by Joe Biden would continue the momentum that has made the United States economy the strongest in the world. With inflation stabilized, and new programs enacted to rein in corporate greed and excessive power, more struggling workers will be able to realize the American dream of being able to support their families and live in dignity. And a thoroughly revised tax code will reduce the disparity between the wealthiest and the average American without moving any of the billionaires out of the top one percent.

My fantasy, which is within the realm of possibility, has Harris beating Trump by 30 million popular votes and capturing 400 electoral votes, including those of Texas and Florida. I wrote these numbers down in a note to self shortly after the Democratic National Convention and stand by them today. As I wrote at the beginning of the year in my New Year’s Day post, this election will be a referendum on reproductive rights. And that referendum will drive unprecedented turnout by Democrats, while many traditional Republicans withhold their votes for president, vote for Kamala Harris or a third-party candidate, or choose to not vote at all.

Unfortunately, Trump and his MAGA minions will not suddenly disappear. Even if Democrats gain control of both houses of congress, their margins will be slim, and their voting power will be extremely limited. The MAGA crowd will continue to oppose any Democratic initiatives and block congress from enacting progressive legislation. We may salvage democracy and restore women’s rights, but we still have a way to go before moving forward with a nonpartisan government that represents and supports working people, gets rid of the filibuster and the electoral college, and places reasonable limits on the oligarchs.