MY PREDICTIONS FOR 2024

Political Reality & The Economy, Oh My!

This will be the craziest year you will ever experience. Many traditions will be upended, wild cards will suddenly appear, and surprise events might begin to feel almost normal. Anything anyone predicts today will be subject to change – possibly more than once. I won’t try to predict anything specific in world affairs but will only state my firm belief that a majority of people on this planet have become more enlightened than ever before, and that the continuing violence, the return of authoritarian leaders, and the apparent lack of integrity and ethical behavior in politics and society is reflective of the old dark energy fighting to remain relevant while barreling toward failure. Our world is moving in the right direction but the road we are on is not smoothly paved.

There is a gaping dichotomy in the United States right now between truth and perception. We have the strongest and most stable economy of any country in the world, but most people think it has failed them. Inflation has dropped below traditional norms, but many people think it remains out of control. Employment is at an all-time high, as are wages and the stock market. Millions of low-wage jobs traditionally filled by immigrants go empty, while we beat back thousands of able and motivated people looking for work at our borders. We have an election coming that will determine whether our country remains the land of the free or succumbs to the whims of an authoritarian dictator, and yet most of the electorate still thinks all the turmoil is just politics as usual.

Barring some unforeseen event, Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee for president. He will choose a highly attractive and eminently unqualified woman to run as his Vice President. Several more states will join Colorado and Maine in trying to bar him from running, but the supreme court will rule that he cannot be disqualified under the 14^th amendment until convicted of insurrection and all appeals lost. He will not go to jail even if convicted on every charge but will continue to appeal decisions until he dies – broke and alone.

And despite his low poll numbers, Joe Biden will be the Democratic nominee, with Kamala Harris continuing as his running mate. Their campaign will be bolstered by several high-profile Republicans and Republican-backed groups doing everything in their power to assure that Trump is not reelected.

The most important issue to be decided by the November election will be whether our country remains a democracy or spirals into an oligarchic dictatorship. That issue alone will not determine the results, however. Nor will the economy be the issue that Republicans hoped it would, as the effects of the Biden administration’s investment in infrastructure, industrial development, job growth, and high-speed internet begin showing real benefit to rural areas and conservative states. The Republican party’s rigid refusal to work with Democrats on even the most basic issues like the budget and immigration, coupled with their obvious inability to govern, will come back to haunt them in November, but will also not be the issue that drives the results.

The single issue that will determine the results of the November election will be the Republican intrusion on individual reproductive rights that was triggered by the Supreme Court overturning Roe v. Wade and the draconian anti-abortion laws enacted in most of the red states. That issue alone will bring so many young and women voters out that they will overwhelm the Republican efforts to suppress voter turnout, jerrymander districts, and rig the election in all the ways they accused Democrats of doing in 2020.

This election will mark the end of the Republican Party as we have known it for the last 40 years. It will also mark the beginning of the end of political parties in the United States, as the country recognizes the value of a government run by highly competent and non-political experts who focus on the greatest good for the largest number of people. That is, the government model created by Franklin Roosevelt and now followed by President Biden.

Republicans will lose elections at all levels of government, except in a few states that are so controlled by the party that it is impossible for Democrats to win regardless of votes. There will be widespread rioting and violence across the country by Trump supporters, but it will be sporadic and disorganized. With more than 1,000 of his most ardent supporters now in jail for their participation in the January 6^th insurrection, he now has only his second-string team to do his bidding. And if the Republicans should somehow be able to rig the election and put Trump back in office, spontaneous million-person mobs will flood the streets of every major city. The Democrats will challenge all the voting as the Republicans did in 2020 and 2021. But unlike the Republicans, the Democrats will find ample evidence to overturn the results.