THE ENTHUSIASM GAP

What the Polls May be Missing

There seems to be a troubling disconnect between the electoral demographics that I wrote about in August and polls that show the coming election to be an extremely tight race. I attribute this disconnect to a number of interrelated issues. First, polls are getting too much attention by the news media and are given more credibility than they deserve. Second, any poll that surveys fewer than 10,000 randomly selected likely voters may not be reliable. Third, pollsters have difficulty reaching younger voters who do not respond to unfamiliar phone numbers, and the pollsters’ algorithms may not be accurately estimating the potential influence of those voters. And fourth, many published polls are designed to elicit specific results in order to sway opinions.

Most importantly, pollsters seem to have difficulty estimating the effects of voter turnout. Just as they missed the groundswell of antipathy against government control by political elites and the educated class that developed among rural and poorly educated voters during the presidential campaigns in 2016 and 2020, they may now be underestimating the level of enthusiasm that will drive voter turnout for Democrats up and down the ballot this year. They may also be underestimating the extent that voters are simply tired of the relentless doom and gloom of the Republican campaign.

And there are other factors in play this year beyond the polls. The Democrats have been running a brilliant campaign, with few missteps. Their campaign organization is exceptionally focused, disciplined, and energetic. The Republican campaign is chaotic and unfocused, with both Trump and Vance seemingly undermining their own chance of victory with their constant exaggerations, boldfaced lies, and wild statements in speeches and social media posts. The Democrats have a strong campaign presence in every state with tens of thousands of volunteers canvassing voters and encouraging voter registration. Republicans have only scattered groups of volunteers in the states with little or no support from their national campaign committee.

Democrats across the board, of all ages, genders, and ethnicity, are highly motivated and will be voting. Republicans appear to be more discouraged and less motivated. While I expect that few Republicans will vote for Harris, I suspect that many of the traditional Republicans outside of the rabid MAGA base won’t vote for Trump either. Independent voters appear to be leaning toward the Democratic side, and it is likely that some who supported Trump in the past will not vote for him this time. And a most unusual trend is appearing in news reports this week: Wall Street investors and business leaders, aware that stock market indices are at all-time highs and more than double what they were four years ago, are coming out publicly for the Democrats.

Despite all of these trends and factors, we must not overlook the fact that the Republicans’ long game of undermining election integrity in the states could affect this year’s outcome in the electoral college. The Republicans play dirty; with rare exceptions the Democrats seem to be more honest. It is obvious that the Republicans are actively making all of the underhanded moves that they accused the Democrats of making in 2020. Some of the Republican controlled states have rigged their elections so thoroughly by gerrymandered districts and voter suppression that it is impossible for a Democrat to win any high office despite the will of a majority of the voters.

It is essential that the MAGA republicans be driven out of office this year. It is not hyperbole to say that a win by Trump could mark the end of democracy in this country for generations to come. That intent is clearly spelled out in the Republican party platform, which is a sanitized version of the Heritage Foundation’s Project 2025 - Mandate for Change report. I remain hopeful that enthusiasm will overcome ignorance, and that democracy will prevail in November. I also remain confident that the driving issues behind this year’s election will not be the economy or border control but will be about women’s reproductive rights and saving our democracy. Above all, do not let the doom and gloom get to you; much of what you see or read online is propaganda coming out of Russia, China, and Iran. Keep your expectations and your enthusiasm high and do whatever you can to assure that we hang onto our freedoms and keep our democracy intact.